The MVRV Average Price converts the MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) ratio into a price level, marking the point where the market’s paper gains are neither rich nor thin. Trips to either side have tended to come back.

Above it, paper gains are fuller than this market has typically carried. Below it, the ratio sits under its own centre, in the region where patient buying has tended to be rewarded.

What it actually measures

The underlying ratio compares what the market is worth with what it collectively paid. Expressed as a ratio it is an oscillator; expressed as a price it becomes a line that can sit on the same axis as spot.

The level marks the point at which aggregate unrealised profit sits at its historical middle. Distance from it, in either direction, is the reading rather than the level itself.

A ratio tells you the market is stretched, a level tells you where it stops being stretched

An oscillator answers whether a condition is present. It is genuinely useful and it is also unactionable on a price chart, because it cannot say what price would end the condition. A reader looking at a stretched ratio still has to work out what that means in dollars.

Converting it into a level answers that directly. The same information becomes a line you can measure spot against, and the distance is legible at a glance rather than requiring a second calculation. Nothing new is being measured; it is being made usable. That is a presentation decision rather than an analytical one, and it is worth being clear about which of the two you are getting.

What it does not tell you

Reverting towards a historical mean is a tendency and not a rule. Spot has camped on either side of this level for long periods, and knowing a condition is stretched says nothing at all about when it ends.

The mean it is built around also moves as history accumulates. What counted as an average reading in an earlier era is not what counts now, so the level is a relative reference rather than a fixed one. A reading that looked extreme against a shorter history can look ordinary once more of it exists, which is a property of every measure defined against its own past.

How to read it

Far above MVRV Average Price. Aggregate unrealised profit is stretched well beyond its historical middle.

Above MVRV Average Price. The market’s paper gains are fuller than it has typically carried.

Near MVRV Average Price. Unrealised profit sits at its historical middle, neither stretched nor depressed.

Below MVRV Average Price. The ratio sits under its own centre, in the region where patient buying has tended to be rewarded.

Find MVRV Average Price on the Cost Bases dashboard, alongside Waterline, Investor Price and Balanced Price.

Common questions

What does this convert?

What the market is worth, weighed against what it collectively paid, expressed as a price level instead of as an oscillator.

Why is a level more useful than a ratio?

Because a ratio cannot say what price would end a stretched condition. A level can be measured against spot directly.

Is the middle a fair value?

It is a historical middle rather than a valuation. It marks where unrealised profit has typically sat, which is not the same as what the asset is worth. The two questions get confused often enough to be worth separating.

Must price come back to the level?

No. Reversion is a tendency, and the market has spent long stretches on both sides.

Does the level itself move?

Yes. The mean it is built around shifts as history accumulates, so it is a relative reference rather than a fixed one.