The Overhead Price finds the closest thick band of coins sitting above the market, the level where a crowd of owners would finally get back to level. What it identifies is a wall built out of what people paid, not one drawn with a ruler.

Anything that climbs into it runs headlong into owners who can at last get out without booking a loss. It is a fact about who holds what, not a shape somebody spotted, which is precisely what sets it apart from a line ruled across old peaks.

What it actually measures

The view looks up from spot and finds the closest dense band of coins bought at a higher price. The thickness of that band is what matters, because a thin shelf is absorbed quickly and a heavy one is not.

Under the level, stranded coins sit above spot waiting to get back to what they cost, and that weight is what a rally has to chew through. Above it, the nearest overhead has been cleared and there is less immediate resistance in the way.

This is resistance with a reason behind it

Ordinary resistance is drawn from where price previously turned, which is a description of what happened rather than an explanation. This level names the holders and the reason: people who bought there and have been waiting to get out even.

That matters because it makes the resistance testable. If the band is thick, the rally has real supply to absorb and stalling is expected. If it is thin, a stall is something else, and the level has told you which case you are in before the market does.

What it does not tell you

It says nothing of whether those holders will actually sell. Break-even is a natural exit for many people and not for everyone, and a cohort that has held through a deep drawdown may have already decided to keep holding.

It also only points at the nearest shelf. A thin band close to spot can be cleared easily while a far heavier one sits just above it, and the level on its own will not tell you that the next one is the real problem.

Nor does it survive a new high. Once price is above every previous session there is no overhead cost basis left to point at, and the view falls silent in exactly the conditions people most want a level for.

How to read it

Far beneath Overhead Price. A wide stretch of trapped supply sits above, and a rally has a lot to absorb before reaching it.

Beneath Overhead Price. Stranded coins wait above spot to get back to what they cost, and a rally has to absorb them.

Approaching Overhead Price. Price is moving into the nearest shelf of underwater supply, where sellers can finally exit at cost.

Above Overhead Price. The nearest overhead has been cleared, leaving little immediate resistance above.

Overhead Price runs on the Cost Bases dashboard next to Waterline, Realised Price and Conviction Price.

Common questions

What makes this different from chart resistance?

It names the holders and the reason. Ordinary resistance describes where price turned before; this describes who is waiting to break even and at what level.

Does reaching it mean price stalls?

Not necessarily. It means a rally is meeting supply that can exit at cost, and how thick that supply is decides whether the stall is real.

What if the band is thin?

Then a stall there is being caused by something other than trapped supply, which is useful to know before attributing it to this level.

Will those holders definitely sell?

No. Break-even is a natural exit for many and not for all, and a cohort that held through a deep drawdown may have already chosen to stay.

Does it show every shelf above price?

No. It points at the nearest one, and a heavier band can sit just beyond it.