STH Realised Price tracks what the newest owners of the supply handed over for it, taken across the whole Short-Term Holder cohort at once. Through sustained advances it has turned price back time and again, and giving way on it has tended to signal that the advance is finished.

Nobody reacts to a falling market faster than somebody who bought into it last week. Once the market trades under what that group handed over, the coins most at risk of being dumped are precisely the ones showing a loss, and that is why so many corrections turn here.

What it actually measures

The level tracks what the newest cohort of holders paid for their coins. Above it, that cohort is in profit and has no loss to realise, which removes the most reactive source of near-term supply. Below it, the same cohort is holding a loss.

That asymmetry is what gives the line its behaviour. Very few references switch role as readily, holding price up on one approach and capping it on the next, and a great many local turns resolve somewhere near it.

The cohort it measures is being replaced continuously

Short-term holders are defined by how recently they bought, not by who they are. Coins age out of the cohort every day and new purchases age in, so the population behind the level is never the same twice.

That means the line can move without anybody buying or selling. A quiet week in which older coins graduate out of the cohort shifts the level on its own. Before reading a move here as new demand or new supply, check whether the level came to price rather than price coming to the level.

What it does not tell you

It is a cost basis, not a boundary. Price trades through it regularly and can sit either side for long stretches, so treating a single cross as a signal produces far more crosses than it produces turns.

Size is outside what it reports. The level records what recent buyers paid and not how many of them there are, so an identical reading can sit under a large reactive cohort or a small one, and those are very different markets.

How to read it

Far above STH Realised Price. Recent buyers hold a wide unrealised gain, which is also supply that can be sold into strength.

Above STH Realised Price. Recent buyers are in profit, near-term forced supply is removed, and the level tends to act as first support on a pullback.

Near STH Realised Price. The most contested level on the chart. How it resolves has usually decided whether a pullback holds.

Below STH Realised Price. The newest buyers are sitting on losses, and the level starts capping rallies instead of holding them up.

The Cost Bases dashboard keeps STH Realised Price alongside LTH Realised Price, Realised Price and Active Realised Price.

Common questions

Why does this level matter more than other cost bases?

Because the newest owners are the twitchiest money on the network. Once the market trades under what that group handed over, the coins most at risk of being dumped are the ones showing a loss.

Why does it act as support and then as resistance?

Because the cohort behind it changes behaviour depending on which side price is on. In profit they have no loss to realise, and underwater they have a break-even to sell into.

Can the level move on its own?

Yes. Coins age out of the short-term cohort continuously, so the line shifts as its membership changes even on a quiet week.

Is a single cross a signal?

Rarely. Price trades through this level often, and what matters is whether it holds on the retest rather than the crossing itself.

What about the long-term holder level?

They are the same measure over opposite cohorts. Which of the two sits higher describes what stage of a cycle the market is in.