Vaulted Price puts a figure on the portion of the market that never moves. What it describes is the sleeping base of long-held coins, a quantity that shifts at a glacial pace and only becomes interesting at the edges of its range.

It sits a very long way under spot and acts as a floor of last resort. Price breaking under it would be a historically extreme reading, and the reason that sentence is conditional is the most important thing about this level.

What it actually measures

The dormant base of the supply carries a valuation of its own, drawn from coins that have demonstrated over years that they do not move. That valuation changes slowly, because the behaviour behind it changes slowly.

Its function on the dashboard is scale. It marks where the bottom of the valuation range sits, which is what gives every level above it a sense of proportion instead of being read in isolation.

It moves slowly for the same reason the supply behind it does. Coins enter the dormant base by sitting still for years, and they leave it by moving, so the level reflects a decision made long ago rather than anything happening this week.

A floor that has never been tested cannot be trusted like one that has

Levels earn credibility by being reached and holding. This one has essentially not been visited, which means there is no record of how the market behaves when it arrives, and no evidence that it would hold if it did.

That makes it a scale marker, not a trading level, and it should be read as such. Its job is to anchor the bottom of the range and give the levels above it proportion. Anyone treating it as a price target is treating an untested assumption as a tested one.

What it does not tell you

It has almost no history of being reached, so there is nothing to backtest. A model with no out-of-sample events is a hypothesis, however reasonable the reasoning behind it.

It also depends on a definition of dormant supply. Coins whose keys are lost sit in that base permanently and are indistinguishable from coins being deliberately held, so part of the level rests on supply that is not a decision at all.

Nor does it scale with the market. The dormant base grows as coins age into it, and it does so on its own timetable rather than in response to price, so the gap between this level and spot widens and narrows for reasons that have little to do with demand.

How to read it

Far above Vaulted Price. The usual state. The floor sits well beneath spot, marking the bottom of the range rather than doing any work.

Above Vaulted Price. Price remains clear of the deepest dormant-coin valuation.

Approaching Vaulted Price. A configuration the market has essentially not visited.

Below Vaulted Price. Price has broken beneath the deepest floor on the dashboard, a historically extreme reading.

Vaulted Price has a panel of its own on the Cost Bases dashboard, as do CVDD, True Market Mean and Balanced Price.

Common questions

What does Vaulted Price represent?

The value carried by supply that sits still instead of circulating, drawn from coins that have shown over years that they do not move.

Why does it sit so far below spot?

Because it reflects the dormant base of the supply and not what the market is currently paying, and those two numbers are very far apart.

Has price ever reached it?

Essentially not, which is exactly why it should be read as a scale marker rather than as a level with a track record.

What is it useful for then?

Proportion. It anchors the bottom of the valuation range, which is what gives the levels above it meaning.

Do lost coins affect it?

Yes. They sit in the dormant base permanently and cannot be separated from coins being deliberately held.