For 16 years, Bitcoin’s hashrate only ever pointed one way: up and to the right. The one chart you could set your watch by, the purest expression of capital flooding into the network’s security.

That era has quietly ended.

The network has spent 220 days below its peak. Hashrate has fallen this far before, after the China ban, after every flush, only to come roaring back, because the machines were only ever switched off, never switched away. 

Not this time. For the first time, the people who own the hashpower are choosing to leave, and saying so out loud.

This is a genuine bear market in hashrate itself. Whether it means the bottom is in or something structural is just beginning is the whole question, and the data answers it differently than the headlines do.

Let’s get into it. 

Key insights

• The First Hashrate Bear Market: Hashrate sits 19.9% below its peak, and for the first time, the cause isn’t one Bitcoin has survived before.

• The Great AI Pivot: Nearly every listed miner is walking to AI, and it quietly breaks the one indicator everyone is using to call the bottom.

• Below the Cost Floor: I’ll show you how I model network production cost, and exactly how far underwater the average miner is right now.

• Reading the Turn: A historically low Puell and a fresh Hash Ribbon are flashing, but the spread is hiding something most people will miss.

A First in Bitcoin's History

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