Yesterday the AI trade had its worst day in years. The Nasdaq-100 fell 6.5%, its worst day since March 2020. The chip index fell 11.2%, also its worst since the Covid crash. Nvidia and ASML each lost 9.3%, and AMD and Micron more than 17%.
Bitcoin fell with it, 5.5% from $80K to $76K.
This week's update is a little different. Alongside Bitcoin, I'm looking properly at big tech too. Bitcoin and crypto remain our focus, and that isn't changing. But we've run a tech portfolio for many years, and plenty of you hold both.
There's a bigger reason too.
As equities move on-chain through tokenisation, the tools we've built for Bitcoin (cost bases, profit and loss, holder behaviour) will start to work on traditional assets for the first time. I'll show you an early version of that later on.
Let's get into it.
Key insights
A Year Apart, to the Day: Bitcoin topped on 6th October 2025. The Nasdaq topped on 6th October 2026. Bitcoin also turned first in 2017 and 2021.
The Havens Barely Moved: While chip stocks fell 9% to 17%, Apple fell just 1.5% and Microsoft 3.6%. Apple is still only 1.5% below its 52-week high.
Bitcoin Held Through a Record Hack: Since the $6.3B Binance hack, Bitcoin has fallen 6.5%, while the Nasdaq-100 fell 10.8% and Nvidia 15.7%.
On-Chain Tools, Pointed at Big Tech: A short-term holder cost basis for Nvidia and ASML, our Dip Score on every big tech name, and what 10% in Bitcoin does to an AI portfolio.
The Havens Held
The first thing to notice about yesterday is what didn't fall.
The chip makers were crushed. The chip index fell -11.2%, TSMC -10.8%, Broadcom -10.4%, and Nvidia and ASML -9.3% each.
The AI-adjacent growth names followed. Tesla fell -10.8%, Palantir -9.7% and Oracle -6.9%.
The cash machines barely flinched. Apple fell -1.5%, Netflix -1.3%, Amazon and Alphabet about -2.2%, and Microsoft -3.6%.
Zoom out to the Nasdaq's record close on 6th October and the split is even starker. Since then the chip index is -29.2%, ASML -26.0% and Nvidia -24.1%, while Apple is +3.2% and Microsoft +1.3%.
This wasn't a sell-off in tech. It was a sell-off in the AI trade, and the names with the cash flow to ride it out barely noticed.
A Year Apart
Here's the detail I find most striking. Bitcoin's cycle high was on 6th October 2025. The Nasdaq Composite and Nvidia both made their record closes on 6th October 2026. Exactly one year apart.
It isn't the first time Bitcoin has turned first.
In 2017 Bitcoin topped on 16th December and the Nasdaq followed 8.5 months later, in August 2018. In 2021 the gap was just 11 days, 8th November against 19th November. At the lows, Bitcoin bottomed 9 days before the Nasdaq in December 2018 and 37 days before it in 2022.
Four cycles is a small sample and the lead has varied hugely, so it isn't a rule. But it makes sense: Bitcoin is the most speculative liquid asset there is, it never closes, and it tends to feel a turn in risk appetite first.
The encouraging part is where Bitcoin sits in its own cycle. It fell 53% into its low of $58.5K on 30th June, and even after yesterday it's still 30% above that low.
Bitcoin has spent the past year doing the hard part. The AI trade may only just be starting it.
A Record Hack, and Bitcoin Held
All of this came in the week after the largest hack crypto has ever seen. By Binance's own count about $6.3B was taken, in an attack attributed to North Korea's TraderTraitor group.
What impressed me was the response.
Binance pledged to reimburse every user in full from its SAFU fund and its own balance sheet, reopened withdrawals in phases from last Sunday, and said its reserves were already 95% replenished.
Chainalysis says around $2.8B of the stolen funds has been frozen. A few years ago a hack this size could have completely broken the market.
And Bitcoin held up remarkably well, considering.
From the close on 28th October to yesterday, Bitcoin fell -6.5%, while the Nasdaq-100 fell -10.8% and Nvidia -15.7%. Up to Wednesday's close, through the whole hack, Bitcoin was down just -1.0%, while the Nasdaq-100 had already given up -4.6%.
The biggest crypto shock on record barely dented Bitcoin. It took a crash in the Nasdaq to move it. So why does Bitcoin still trade like a leveraged Nasdaq on the days that matter?
That's what the rest of this update answers. Below, I show the exact days Bitcoin moves with the Nasdaq and the days it doesn't, build a short-term holder cost basis for Nvidia and ASML to show how deep underwater their recent buyers are and what happened every past time they got here, run our Dip Radar across big tech to find what is undervalued, and test what 10% in Bitcoin does to an AI portfolio. I finish with the levels I'm watching and how our company is positioning.
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