How long does a Bitcoin bear market actually last?

At first glance, it sounds like something that should be easy to answer. But markets rarely behave with that kind of neatness. No single indicator can reliably call the exact start and end of a bear market.

So instead of relying on 1 signal, I decided to measure 4 independent indicators, each capturing a completely different dimension of market behaviour, to see how long the bear phase typically lasts.

The results were surprisingly consistent.

And if history even rhymes, the finish line for our current misery is closer than it feels, but perhaps further than the impatient would like to admit.

Key insights

• The Hidden Clock of Bear Markets: Bitcoin bear cycles show remarkable consistency when measured through independent structural and statistical indicators.

• Pain Concentrates at the End: The deepest phase of a bear market tends to last a consistent amount of time below key on-chain cost bases.

• Indicators Resolve at Different Speeds: Momentum indicators recover faster, while long-term supply metrics take longer to exit bear territory.

• A Converging Timeline: Most metrics currently cluster around a similar timeframe for a potential bear market resolution and a definitive bull market return.

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