Bear markets do not end with a bang. They end when the sellers simply run out of energy, and you can measure that moment precisely.

Daily turnover has fallen to $27 billion. That is 60% below its average, thinner than the February capitulation, thinner than the June flush, and thinner than anything since the summer of 2023.

Boredom is not a neutral state in this market. It is a phase that shows up at two very specific points in a cycle: the exhausted end of a bear and the unnoticed beginning of a bull.

So let me show you how empty this market has actually become, where its true centre of gravity sits, and the one directional signal that has quietly crossed a line it stayed under through the past two bear markets.

Let’s get into it.

Key insights

• The Centre of Gravity: 3 years of price action anchor to a single level, and we are sitting just beneath it.

• The Participation Vacuum: Daily volume is 60% below average, quieter than either of this year’s capitulation events.

• A Cycle-Low Reading: Volume momentum has not been this depressed since the summer of 2023.

• The Directional Flip: One gauge has crossed a threshold that stayed firmly negative through both previous bear markets.

The One Number We Keep Returning To

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