Today, we’re diving into 10 great questions submitted by you, ranging from the structural shift in Ethereum’s dominance and the impact of the new spot options market to managing leveraged MSTR positions and my latest technical outlook on SUI.
There’s a lot of great questions again, so let’s dive straight in!
1. ETH/BTC Ratio: Is the "Flippening" Narrative Finally Dead?
Question: Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin for years now for the most part. With the ETH/BTC ratio showing signs of life in 2025, do you think ETH will finally outperform this year, or is BTC the only safe macro play?
My Thoughts: The ETH/BTC ratio has been a painful trade for many, but we are finally seeing a structural shift. The rotation from "stable" Bitcoin into the high-beta plays like Ethereum typically happens when Bitcoin dominance hits a ceiling, which we are seeing right now around current levels.
On-chain, we see Ethereum's network fees and L2 activity hitting record highs. While Bitcoin remains the pristine collateral, I do believe Ethereum could be the liquidity vacuum. I expect ETH to outperform on a percentage basis in the latter half of 2026 as the regulatory path for DeFi becomes even clearer.
According to the Logarithmic Risk, we’re basically at fair value (55% risk) for ETH/BTC at the current levels of 0.035. The maximum 100% risk scenario currently stands at 0.072. So if we start heading up to that sort of territory on this ratio, I would begin to consider a safe rotation strategy back to BTC.
2. Why is the $85k-$97k Price Range is So Sticky?
Question: We’ve been stuck in this sideways range for a while now. Why can't we just break $100k and stay there?
My Thoughts: This is classic re-accumulation event. When you have massive entities like the ETFs and Strategy buying, you also have legacy LTHs from 10+ years ago who see $100k as a psychological life-goal to take profits. This creates a massive wall of supply that the market must chew through.
As I highlighted in a recent piece A Violent Move Is Coming for Bitcoin we correctly foresaw the rally toward $100k, but I defined this specific region as the "ultimate line in the sand". This is because we have three of the most critical technical and on-chain levels all converging at once: the Short-Term Holder Realised Price, the 365-Day MA, and the 200-Day MA.
When these high-confluence levels cluster together, they act like a magnetic ceiling. Breaking through them requires a massive catalyst of liquidity. However, there is a silver lining: the longer we spend consolidating below $100k, the more coiled the spring becomes. This sideways price action is building a formidable base of support, and once we finally clear the $100k hurdle, the subsequent move is likely to be far more explosive than if we had just wicked through it on the first attempt.
3. Impact of the Federal Reserve Leadership Change
Question: Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026. How do you expect the market to react to a potential Trump-appointed successor, and will it affect any metrics you track?
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