Most retirement calculators were designed for a world of 60/40 equity-bond splits and 7% annualised returns. That world still exists, but it’s no longer the only one worth modelling.

What happens when you introduce an asymmetric, high-volatility asset like Bitcoin into a retirement portfolio stress-tested across 1,000 simulated futures?

We built a tool to answer exactly that question. And the results are, as always, genuinely interesting.

Let’s get into it.

Key insights

• Diminishing Returns Matter: Crypto models must account for decaying growth curves to stay realistic and grounded.

• The Monte Carlo Reality: Averages lie; understanding probability bands prevents catastrophic end-of-life depletion and poverty.

• Nominal vs. Real Purchasing: Adjusting for inflation exposes the true, often terrifying, cost of future living.

• The Freedom Number, Reverse-Engineered: The model works backwards from your desired retirement income to tell you precisely what you need to hold today, rather than guessing tomorrow.

A $1 Million Portfolio and a Whole Lot of Volatility

Let’s walk through the exact configuration I used to demonstrate this brand-new Retirement Model. The idea was intentionally simple:

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