Apparent Demand sets what the market is soaking up against what is newly turning up for sale, so anything above the line means coin is disappearing quicker than it appears. Little else on chain reads the balance between wanting and having so plainly.

The first word is doing real work, and it remains the reason this page spends as long on the name as on the reading. It is inferred rather than observed, and the name says so rather than hiding it.

What it actually measures

What gets soaked up is set against freshly minted coin plus whatever comes back out of storage. The crossing point divides two conditions rather than measuring anything: on one side the market takes more than it is offered, on the other it is offered more than it takes.

On its own the figure is a quantity of coin and tells you very little, so it is accompanied by a score against everything on record. That score is what says at once whether this week is unremarkable or exceptional.

Nobody can see demand, so the honest name is apparent

Demand is a disposition, and dispositions are not observable. What can be observed is whether coins are moving into places they tend not to leave, faster than new coins are arriving.

Calling that apparent demand rather than demand is a small piece of honesty with a large consequence. It marks the reading as an inference from supply behaviour, which means a change in it can come from the supply side as easily as from any change in appetite, and reading it as a sentiment gauge quietly drops that caveat.

What it does not tell you

It cannot separate absorption from relocation. Coins moving into cold storage and coins moving into a custodian’s omnibus wallet look similar, and only one of them describes somebody choosing to hold.

The zero line is also a sharper boundary in the chart than in the market. Readings that hover just either side of it flip regime labels without much having changed, and so the run length beside the reading matters more than the sign on any single day.

It is also blind to price. A market absorbing coin steadily at any price registers the same way, so the reading describes the balance of supply and not what anybody was willing to pay for it. Pairing it with price is what turns a supply observation into a market one.

How to read it

Strong Demand. Absorption is running well ahead of issuance.

Mild Demand. Modest net absorption.

Neutral. Absorption and issuance are broadly balanced.

Mild Distribution. A little more coin turning up for sale than the market is soaking up.

Heavy Distribution. Coin is turning up for sale a good deal faster than the market can soak it up.

Apparent Demand is one of the views on the Supply dashboard, along with Accumulation Trend, The Real Float and Wallet Distribution.

Common questions

Why is the word apparent in the name?

Because it is deduced from how the supply behaves rather than witnessed. Wanting cannot be observed; what can be observed is whether coin disappears quicker than it appears.

Why is the crossing point the important part?

Because it divides two conditions rather than measuring anything. Going over it means the balance has reversed, and how long the market stays across says how firmly.

What does the rank add over the level?

Perspective. On its own the figure is a quantity of coin and says very little, while its score against the record settles whether this week is unremarkable or exceptional.

Which two things does it blur?

Absorption and relocation. Coins moving into cold storage and into a custodian’s omnibus wallet look similar, and only one describes a decision to hold.

Should a single day’s sign be acted on?

No. Readings hovering either side of zero flip labels without much having changed, so the run length matters more than the sign.