Effective Vintages measures how many genuinely independent accumulation eras sit inside today’s supply. It is a reading of breadth rather than of level, and it is easily the closest thing this dashboard has to a structural fragility gauge.

Neither end of it is bullish or bearish. A low count and a high count describe different market structures rather than different directions, and reading it as a directional signal is reading it wrong.

What it actually measures

Supply accumulated in a handful of concentrated bursts and supply accumulated steadily across many years look identical on a price chart and behave very differently. This view separates them by asking how many eras meaningfully contribute to what exists now.

A crowd of tiny eras weighs less than a handful of substantial ones, which tilts the answer towards whichever periods genuinely hold coin. A small figure says a few buying eras run the place. A large one says none of them does.

The count moves slowly, and it moves for two reasons: a new era of buying joins the supply, or an existing one is spent down. Both are gradual, so a sharp move here usually means a large cohort has genuinely changed size.

A low count means many holders share one exit

A big group that all came in around one price tends to respond to the same levels simultaneously. A single move puts an enormous number of them under water together, after which selling turns up in surges instead of trickling. It is the fragility being described.

A large figure describes the reverse. With entry prices scattered across many eras, no one level drowns a great block of owners at a stroke, so selling arrives at a gentler pace. It is the small figures that have gone before the most tightly synchronised selling.

What it does not tell you

It has no timing at all. A fragile structure can sit undisturbed for a long time, and this view offers no opinion on what would disturb it. It describes what would happen if something did.

It also cannot see intent. A market can be spread across many vintages and still sell in one move, driven by something that has no connection to what anybody originally paid.

Leverage is the clearest example. It manufactures correlated selling inside a structure this view would call spread, because a forced seller does not consult their cost basis before the position is closed for them.

How to read it

Concentrated. A few buying eras run the place, which is the more brittle arrangement.

Mid-range. A normal spread of buying eras.

Spread. Entry prices are scattered across many eras, so no one group’s decisions can dominate.

Effective Vintages runs on the Dormancy dashboard next to Wake Rate, Vaultedness and Average Age of All Coins.

Common questions

What does the count actually count?

How many buying eras genuinely account for the supply as it stands. A crowd of tiny ones weighs less than a handful of substantial ones.

What makes a narrow base fragile?

Because a large cohort that bought around the same price tends to react to the same levels together, so supply arrives in waves.

Is a high reading good?

Neither good nor bad on its own. It measures fragility rather than direction, and a spread structure simply sells more gradually.

Does it predict a sell-off?

No. It describes how supply would behave if one began. The low readings have preceded the sharpest correlated selling, which is not the same as calling it.

What should be checked next to it?

Wake Rate, which shows whether the concentrated cohorts are actually stirring, and a price measure of where those cohorts sit relative to what they paid.