The Log Growth Model draws a slow-moving estimate of fair value beside price, laid out on ordinary dates so both can be followed together. What it settles is the distance between where the market trades and the path it has kept to across its entire life.

Spot has camped on either side of that curve for years at a time. The distance is the reading, and the curve itself promises nothing about carrying on.

What it actually measures

The model describes a trajectory fitted across the asset’s entire history and draws it forward as a curve. Spot above it is a premium to that long-run path and spot below it is a discount, with the size of either being what carries information.

A projection can be switched on that carries the estimate past today, following the shape of the curve instead of shooting off at a tangent. What that produces is fair value extended forward, and it makes no claim at all about price.

Zooming in does not refit the curve

Switching the window leaves the estimate exactly where it was. It is built once from the entire record and the timeframe only decides how much gets drawn, so any given date reports the same fair value whichever view is open.

That is deliberate, and this is the difference between a long-run model and a moving average wearing one’s clothes. A curve that refitted itself to whatever period you happened to be looking at would tell you about your zoom level rather than about the asset.

What it does not tell you

It is a description of the past extended forward, and nothing obliges the future to comply. A trajectory that has held so far is evidence of a pattern, not a mechanism, and the model offers no account of why the pattern should continue. Adoption curves, market structure and the size of the asset have all changed across the period it is fitted to, and the curve absorbs all of that into one line.

It also gives no timing. Price has traded far above and far below the curve for long stretches, so knowing the market is stretched against it is silent on when that ends.

How to read it

Stretched Above. The market is asking more than double what the estimate says. Gaps this wide have belonged to the closing stretch of a cycle.

At Fair Value. Price is hugging the slow curve, which is where it has passed the bulk of its life.

Under Fair Value. The market is asking less than the estimate says, which has historically been the buying end.

The Market Cycles dashboard draws Log Growth Model alongside Power Law, Power Law Drawdown and Log Risk.

Common questions

What sets this apart from the Power Law view?

Both report the same underlying estimate and their figures match. This one lays it out on ordinary dates so curve and price can be followed together; the other stretches the time axis until the whole relationship pulls straight.

Does changing the window rebuild the curve?

No. It is built once from the entire record and the timeframe only decides how much gets drawn, so any date reports the same figure whichever view is open.

Should the curve be treated as a target?

No. What it describes is the path the asset has kept to so far, and price has camped out on either side of that path for years at a time.

What is the projection actually drawing?

It carries the estimate past today along the shape of the curve, with a control for how far. What that produces is fair value extended forward, with no claim about price.

What would falsify it?

A sustained departure that never returns. The model rests on a pattern holding, and it carries no mechanism that would force it to.