This is the distribution itself: a count of how much supply last changed hands at each price, coloured by whether that price sits under today’s or above it. Every other view on the dashboard refines this one.

What makes it worth reading is that none of it is modelled. Each bar records prices at which coins genuinely settled, so the shape is a record of decisions rather than an estimate of them.

What it actually measures

A tall bar marks a price at which an unusual amount of supply came to rest. Everyone inside it paid about the same, so they share a breakeven, and a shared breakeven is a shared trigger.

Arriving at a heavy band from beneath tends to meet selling, because the holders inside it are finally whole again after a spell underwater. Arriving at the same band from above tends to meet the opposite, since those holders are now protecting a level they once paid for.

The colouring flips as price moves without a single coin changing hands. A band is only in profit or loss relative to where spot happens to be, so the split is repriced constantly while the bars themselves stay put.

Near-universal profit is a description of crowding

When almost nothing is underwater it reads as strength, and in one sense it is. Everyone holding has a gain, and nobody is sitting on a loss they might capitulate out of.

It is also the point at which there is nobody left to convert. The pool of holders who would become buyers on the way back to breakeven has emptied, and everyone still holding has something to protect instead.

Cohort Split: the same wall behaves differently depending on who built it

Bands held by patient supply tend to absorb pressure. Those holders have already sat through a great deal, and price arriving at what they paid is not the event for them that it is for somebody who bought last month.

Two bands can hold identical supply at identical prices and be worth entirely different amounts of confidence. The combined chart draws them the same way, because it has no way of distinguishing them.

Adding age is what converts a wall from a quantity into a prediction about behaviour. It is the difference between knowing how many people are there and knowing something about what they will do.

Holder Age: quiet markets age upward with nobody doing anything

Old supply sitting near spot is the reading worth pausing on. Those are holders who have already sat through a great deal and who are now close to breakeven, which makes them the least likely to panic and the most likely to have a view.

A coin’s age resets completely when it moves. That means the whole distribution drifts older during any stretch where little changes hands, without a single holder having made a decision.

It also means a busy market crowds the young end of the scale. Reading a shift in the colouring as a change in conviction is therefore a mistake: much of the time it is simply a record of how much trading there has been.

UTXO Density: one large holder is not the same as a thousand small ones

Where positions are plentiful and coin is scarce, the band belongs to a crowd of modest holders. Where the counts run the other way, a few large owners have it, and the two behave nothing alike when tested.

Weighting by coin treats a single enormous position and a thousand modest ones as identical when they add to the same total. For anything involving how people behave, they are not remotely the same.

A thousand holders facing a decision produce a spread of answers that partly cancel. One holder facing the same decision produces one answer, at full size, all at once, and this is the view that shows the difference.

Avg Coin Size: concentration is fragility wearing the costume of strength

A band built from large positions can be undone by very few decisions. Concentration means the whole level rests on a small number of people continuing to hold it.

A level held by large holders looks formidable, because the supply behind it is enormous and the holders are assumed to be sophisticated. Both of those things can be true and neither makes the level durable.

Durability comes from how many separate decisions would have to change. A wall resting on a handful of them is a wall with a handful of ways to fail, however much coin is stacked behind it.

USD Invested: selling pressure follows the money, not the coin count

Coins bought cheaply are numerous and carry little money. Coins bought expensively are few and carry a great deal, so weighting by capital can reverse the verdict the supply chart gives.

Supply answers how many coins face a decision. It treats a coin bought at a tenth of today’s price and one bought at twice it as the same unit, which for counting purposes it is.

The people holding them are not in the same position at all. Weighting by capital is what puts the two on the footing the holders actually experience, and pressure to sell has tracked that footing more closely than the coin count.

What it does not tell you

It shows where supply last moved, not who moved it or why. A custody transfer and a genuine purchase leave the same mark at the same price.

It is a photograph of now. Nothing in the shape says how long a band has been there, whether it is growing, or whether the coins in it have changed hands repeatedly.

Bands are approximate by construction. Supply is bucketed into price ranges, so a wall is a neighbourhood rather than a line, and treating it as precise is a mistake.

How to read it

Euphoric. Almost the entire supply is in profit, a state this market has never held for long.

Majority in Profit. Most supply sits beneath spot, which leaves the heavy bands above as potential resistance.

Majority in Loss. Most supply is underwater, which leaves the heavy bands beneath as potential support.

Profit / Loss is drawn on the URPD dashboard, beside Support / Resistance, Cohort Split and Supply Stress Curve.

Common questions

What is this distribution?

A count of supply arranged by the price each coin last settled at. Nothing in it has been estimated, and that is the reason the shape carries any weight.

What makes a tall bar worth noticing?

Because a crowd of people who paid the same is a crowd facing the same decision. It is why price arriving at one tends to produce a reaction rather than passing through unnoticed.

Why is near-total profit a warning?

Because it means the supply of future buyers has run dry. Nobody is underwater waiting to break even, and everybody holding has a gain they would rather not give back.

Does the shape change when price moves?

The bars do not, only their colour. Which side of breakeven a band sits on depends entirely on where spot is, so the split moves while the distribution stands still.

Can a wall be relied on?

Not on its own. It marks where plenty of supply is concentrated, which shortens the odds of a reaction without promising one, and plenty of walls have been cut straight through.

Why does it matter who owns a band?

Because the two react differently to the same test. Patient supply tends to absorb pressure at a level; supply bought recently tends to release it, and the combined chart cannot tell you which you are looking at.

Why is age shown as colour?

Because the outline of the distribution is the first thing worth seeing and age is the second. Colour delivers the second without spending any of the first, which a separate chart would have done.

Why keep a second chart of the same bands?

Because that one weights by coin and this one weights by position. They part company exactly where holdings are unusually large or unusually small, and the parting is the information.

Why does position size behind a band matter?

Because concentration is fragility. A level resting on a few enormous positions falls to a few changes of mind, whereas the same level held by thousands of people needs most of them to move together.

How can the money be losing while the coins are winning?

Because cheap coins are numerous and carry little money, while expensive ones are few and carry a great deal. Weighting by capital can reverse the verdict, and the existence of that disagreement is the reason to look.