Realised Cap HODL sorts the money committed to the network according to how long each coin has sat, so every band counts for the money behind it rather than the number of coins in it. The question it settles is who paid what, not who holds how much.

Those two questions do not resolve the same way. A handful of coins bought dear can outweigh a great many bought cheap, and the argument between the two framings is exactly where the interest lies.

What it actually measures

Committed money prices each coin at whatever it last changed hands for instead of at today’s quote, which makes it a record of what was actually paid rather than of what things are worth now. Sorting it by age says when that money turned up, which is a question about who makes up this market rather than about what it costs.

The bands worth watching are the ones this cycle’s newcomers reach as they first stop trading and start keeping. Money showing up there is somebody committing, and no earlier point in the record reveals that commitment.

The youngest band swells in a rally for arithmetic reasons

Any coin that trades is repriced at whatever it fetched and drops straight back into the freshest band. During a rally that pushes committed money towards newcomers all by itself, without a single person altering their behaviour.

So a surge in the young bands during an advance is partly a description of the advance rather than evidence about it. The question worth asking is whether the shift is larger than the price move alone would produce, and reading the young bands as a sentiment signal without that check gets the causation backwards.

What it does not tell you

It inherits every ambiguity of coin age. Custody migrations reset a coin to the youngest band exactly as a genuine sale does, and the value carried moves with it.

The weighting also flatters expensive eras. Capital committed at high prices dominates the picture even when the number of coins involved is small, which is accurate and can still mislead anyone reading the bands as though they described supply. The coin-count view sits alongside it for exactly that reason, and disagreement between the two is a reading in itself rather than an error in either. When value and coin count tell different stories, the gap is describing where expensive supply sits.

How to read it

Speculative Frenzy. Newcomers are carrying most of the committed money. Frantic turnover, late in a run.

Supply Squeeze. The seasoned holders carry most of it and there is very little anybody could actually buy.

Deep Accumulation. Coins are maturing into the patient bands quicker than they are being spent out of them.

Distribution Event. Coin that had been sitting for years is passing to newer owners.

Holding Pattern. Neither cohort is gaining meaningful ground.

Open the Supply dashboard and Realised Cap HODL sits there with HODL Waves, RHODL Ratio and Old Money.

Common questions

What does the value weighting change?

This counts each coin at whatever it last fetched, so a handful bought dear can outweigh a great many bought cheap.

Why does the freshest band balloon during a rally?

Because any coin that trades is repriced at whatever it fetched and drops back into the freshest band. A rally pushes money towards newcomers all by itself.

What is invested capital?

The network priced at whatever each coin last changed hands for instead of at today’s quote. A record of what was paid rather than of what things are worth now.

Which bands are worth watching?

The ones this cycle’s newcomers reach as they stop trading and start keeping. Money showing up there is somebody committing, and no earlier point reveals it.

What does the weighting flatter?

Expensive eras. Capital committed at high prices dominates even when few coins are involved, which is accurate and easy to misread as supply.