The RHODL Ratio (Realised HODL Ratio) weighs the money tied up in the freshest coins against the money tied up in far older ones, which gives it the swing of a cycle dial. Its edges have landed on peaks and floors with a regularity that is hard to ignore.

It climbs as newcomers take over the network’s committed money and sinks as the veterans reclaim it. That one comparison locates a cycle more reliably than most instruments purpose-built for the job.

What it actually measures

The reading weighs what the newest cohort of coins is worth against what a much older cohort is worth. When the young side dominates, a large amount of value has recently changed hands at high prices.

Its record follows from exactly that: it watches the handover itself. Peaks arrive once the veterans have sold to the newcomers, and this observes that transfer outright rather than deducing it from something else.

The raw line drifts, and the percentile is the version that means something

The network’s invested value grows over time, so the raw reading drifts upward across the years. A print from an earlier cycle and one from today are not the same quantity, even when the number is identical.

Ranking the reading against its own history removes that drift, and it is the version where the extremes are legible. Anyone comparing a raw figure to a level they remember from a previous cycle is comparing two things that only look alike.

What it does not tell you

It describes a handover and not a cause. The ratio can only tell you that value has moved between age cohorts, and whether that is distribution into strength or new demand arriving is outside what it observes.

Its reputation rests on a handful of cycle turns. Marking extremes with unusual consistency across three or four cycles is a genuinely good record and a very short one, and the next extreme is not obliged to behave.

It also weighs two cohorts and nothing else. Anything happening to supply that sits between those two ages is invisible here, which on a maturing network is a growing share of the coin. Supply that sits in the middle can shift a great deal without the reading moving at all, and the middle is where most of the coin now lives.

How to read it

Euphoric Top. Newcomers are holding an outlandish share of the committed money. That is what a peak looks like.

Overheated. Fresh coins are carrying more of the committed money than they should.

Elevated. Leaning to recent buyers without being extreme.

Fair Value. Value is spread across ages as usual.

Deep Value. Old coins dominate value: the accumulation side.

The RHODL Ratio sits on the Supply dashboard beside HODL Waves, LTH Supply and Cost Basis Heatmap.

Common questions

What does the ratio compare?

The money tied up in the freshest coins, weighed against the money tied up in far older ones. It climbs as newcomers take over the network’s committed capital.

Why has it read cycles so well?

Because it watches the handover itself. Peaks arrive once the veterans have sold to the newcomers, and that transfer is precisely what it observes.

Why does the raw line drift upward?

Because the committed money swells alongside it, which leaves an untreated figure from years ago meaning something different from one taken today.

How should the percentile be used?

As the version that travels. It is what lets a figure from an earlier cycle carry the same meaning as one taken now, and it is where the edges can actually be read.

How strong is its record?

Good and short. Marking extremes consistently across three or four cycles is a real achievement and a small sample.