SOPR reads whether the coins moving today are being sold above or below what they cost their holder, across the whole market. It is the single broadest read on whether the tape is selling gains or selling regrets.

That distinction matters because price alone cannot tell you who is selling or how they feel about it. Two markets can print the same daily candle while one is made of holders banking long-held gains and the other is made of recent buyers cutting a loss. Those are different markets with different futures, and SOPR is what separates them.

What it actually measures

Every coin that moves on-chain carries a history. It last changed hands at some price, and it is changing hands again now. SOPR compares those two moments across everything that moved, so the reading tells you whether the market as a whole is realising gains or realising losses on the day.

The mechanism is deliberately simple, and that is its strength. It makes no assumption about intent, reads no order book, and requires no view on what should happen next. It only reports what did happen: money was either made or lost on the coins that moved.

Why the breakeven line does the work

Breakeven is where the average coin moving changes from a gain to a loss, and holder behaviour changes sharply across it. In advances that line has repeatedly acted as support: sellers who would have to accept a loss simply wait instead, supply thins, and price recovers off the level. In declines it has capped rallies, because holders who bought higher use the return to cost as an exit.

This is why the level matters more than the magnitude. A reading slightly above breakeven in a rising market carries more information than a much larger reading in the middle of a trend.

What it does not tell you

SOPR is a market-wide average, so it says nothing about who is doing the selling. A large print could be years-old supply finally moving or recent buyers churning between themselves, and those mean opposite things. Age-split versions of the metric exist precisely because the aggregate hides that.

It is also silent on coins that do not move. A market where nobody sells produces a quiet reading, which is not the same as a market where selling is absorbed.

How to read it

Euphoria. Spent coins are realising well above cost, the top of the historical range.

Profit. Coins are moving at a gain, the ordinary condition of an advance.

Breakeven. Coins are changing hands at close to what they cost. Historically a pivot.

Loss. Coins are moving below cost. The marginal seller is underwater.

Capitulation. Deep losses being realised, a configuration that has sat near cycle lows.

SOPR updates daily inside the Profit & Loss dashboard, alongside its age-split and long-term holder variants.

Common questions

Does one print matter?

Rarely. A single day is dominated by whichever large holders happened to move, so the useful readings are sustained periods either side of breakeven rather than any individual figure.

What does a long stretch below breakeven describe?

A market in which the average seller is accepting a loss. That behaviour exhausts, which is why extended periods beneath the line have marked the later stages of drawdowns rather than the start of them.

Is a high reading bullish or bearish?

Both, and that is the point. High readings describe a market where holders are in profit, which is healthy, and simultaneously describe rising supply arriving from those holders. Sustained extremes have clustered nearer local tops than through the middle of trends.

How does this differ from Adjusted SOPR?

The adjusted version filters out very short-lived movements, which are usually internal transfers rather than genuine sales. It gives a cleaner read of the same behaviour, at the cost of responding a little later.

Should I use it on its own?

No. It describes the profit condition of sellers, not demand. Pair it with a measure of what is being bought, and with an age split to see whether old or new supply is behind the reading.