Rather than boiling recent buying down to a single number, this lays out the whole range of prices those buyers paid. Membership of the Short-Term Holder group turns on how lately a coin last shifted, nothing else.

Everything is in the outline. Bunched together means the newcomers broadly settled on one idea of what the thing was worth; strung out means they did not.

What it actually measures

Every coin in the cohort is placed at the price it last moved at, and the resulting spread is drawn. Where the mass sits relative to spot says how much of the cohort is in profit and how much is underwater.

A concentrated shape means a single level governs the whole cohort, so one price decides whether a large block of holders is comfortable. A dispersed one means no single level speaks for the group. Neither shape is healthier than the other; they simply fail in different ways when price moves against the cohort, and knowing which failure you are exposed to is the practical use of the view.

Two cohorts with the same average behave nothing alike

An average is one number standing in for a population, and it hides the only property that matters here. A cohort that bought inside a narrow band and one that bought across a wide range can share an identical mean.

They will behave completely differently when price moves. The tight cohort flips from comfortable to underwater almost at once, producing supply in a wave, while the dispersed one crosses gradually and produces it in a trickle. The mean cannot distinguish the two and the shape does it immediately.

What it does not tell you

Membership turns on when a coin last shifted, never on who is behind it. Moving recently is the entire qualification, which reveals nothing about whether the owner arrived last week or a decade ago. A veteran who reshuffled a wallet on Tuesday counts here exactly as a first-time buyer does.

It is also a snapshot of one cohort at one moment. It shows where recent buyers sit now and carries no memory of how they got there, which the historical cost-basis views supply instead.

And the cohort is constantly being replaced. Coins age out of it every day and new purchases age in, so a change in the shape can come from membership turning over rather than from anybody buying at a new price.

How to read it

Concentrated. The newcomers bought inside a tight range, which leaves one price ruling the entire group.

Dispersed. Recent buying was strung out across many prices, so no single level stands for the group.

Cohort Underwater. The bulk of what the newcomers bought is now showing a loss.

STH Cost Distribution has a panel of its own on the Supply dashboard, as do LTH Cost Distribution, Cost Basis Heatmap and STH Supply.

Common questions

Why the whole spread instead of one figure?

Because a single figure buries the outline. Two groups that paid the same on average behave nothing alike if one bought inside a tight range and the other was strung out across many prices.

Which coins belong to the recent group?

Coins that shifted lately, under the usual dividing line between newcomers and veterans. When a coin last moved is the entire qualification, never who is behind it.

What separates this from the historical heatmap?

That one paints the entire supply across the whole record. This takes a single group and freezes it at today.

Why does a tight distribution matter?

Because the cohort flips from comfortable to underwater almost at once, which produces supply in a wave rather than a trickle.

Does it say who holds the coins?

No. Qualifying is about when a coin last moved, not about who is behind it.