The Cost Basis Heatmap paints, for every moment in the record, the prices at which the supply was actually acquired. Wherever the colour thickens, a great many coins last traded at that level.

Those thick stripes are levels that matter for a reason anybody can state. Each one is a price at which a great many owners simultaneously get back to level, which is a fact about who holds what rather than a pattern somebody traced.

What it actually measures

Colour carries density. A bright band marks a price where a large amount of supply was acquired, and a thin region marks one where very little was, so the map reads as a terrain of where the market’s money actually went in.

Where spot sits relative to those bands is the reading. A cluster above price is supply waiting to break even; the same cluster below price is a group already in profit and no longer forced to act.

The densest cluster reading answers a narrower question than it appears to

The headline cluster figures describe where supply was absorbed over the window you have selected, not where the largest long-standing pile sits in absolute terms.

That distinction matters more than it sounds. A huge legacy cluster from years ago would otherwise dominate every window you looked at and drown out anything recent, so the measure is deliberately scoped. Read it as the heaviest band of this period rather than the heaviest band that exists.

What it does not tell you

A cost basis is not an intention. A dense band tells you a great many holders reach break-even at a level and nothing about whether they will act on it, and cohorts that have sat through a deep drawdown have often already decided not to.

The map also cannot see off-chain positions. Coins held through a custodian that nets internally may show one basis on the chain while the beneficial holders behind them paid something else entirely.

Density is also relative to the window. A band that dominates a two-year view can be a minor feature of the full record, so the map answers a question about the period you have selected and not about the market in general.

How to read it

Heavy Supply. The market is moving into a level where a great many coins were bought, so a large crowd is getting back to level at once.

Open Air. Barely any coins were bought around here, so there is little waiting either above or below.

Cluster as Support. A thick stripe lies beneath the market, and the owners in it are showing a gain rather than queueing to get out.

The Cost Basis Heatmap shares the Supply dashboard with RHODL Ratio, STH Supply and HODL Waves.

Common questions

What is the colour actually showing?

The prices at which the supply was actually acquired. A vivid stripe marks a level where a great many coins last traded, and so the market notices it.

How should spot moving into a dense cluster be read?

As moving into crowded ground. Climbing into a stripe runs into owners finally getting back to level; falling into one runs into owners trying to hold it.

What do the brightest bands represent?

Where coin was taken up during the period on screen, rather than wherever the largest ancient hoard happens to sit. Left alone, one enormous old pile would swamp every window.

Do the palette controls change the data?

No. Those are readability controls only, altering the palette or clearing the shading so the price line has an uncluttered backdrop.

What can the map not see?

Off-chain positions. Coins held through a custodian that nets internally can show one basis on the chain while the holders behind them paid something else.