This lays out the whole range of prices the seasoned supply was bought at. Because the Long-Term Holder group has been assembling itself over many years, its outline is normally far wider than the newcomers’ is.

What emerges is a longer account of where resolve was assembled. Every era that has not yet let go appears here, positioned at whatever that era handed over.

What it actually measures

Aged coins are laid out along the price axis by what they last changed hands for. How much of that mass sits beneath spot is the measure of how comfortable the patient base is, and how far price would have to fall to trouble it.

Most of the time the answer is that it would have to fall a very long way. A deep base well beneath spot is the ordinary condition, which is one reason the rare exception carries so much weight.

A broad shape here is normal, and reading it as fragility is a mistake

Breadth means something quite different in this cohort than in the recent one. Aged supply accumulated across cycles at wildly different prices, so a wide distribution is simply a record of a long history rather than a sign of disagreement.

What counts is not how wide the outline runs but where it sits. Seasoned supply comfortably ahead across a broad spread is the ordinary, healthy arrangement. A serious slice of it showing a loss is uncommon, and the occasions it happened were the very bottom of a collapse.

What it does not tell you

The cohort is defined by coin age rather than by conviction. A coin that has sat still because its keys are lost qualifies exactly as one held deliberately, and both sit somewhere in this distribution.

It also cannot say what would move any of it. A cohort that has held through several drawdowns has demonstrated something, and this view records where they bought without any view on what would finally persuade them to sell.

The shape also moves for two quite different reasons. Coins ageing into the cohort add new mass at recent prices, while coins leaving remove old mass, and a distribution can shift without a single long-term holder changing their mind. Movement in the shape is not by itself movement in conviction.

How to read it

Deep Base. The seasoned supply is bunched a long way beneath the market, leaving that group comfortably ahead.

Dispersed. Seasoned buying is strung out across many prices, which is ordinary for a group assembled over years.

Cohort Stress. A serious slice of the seasoned supply is showing a loss, which the record says is uncommon.

The Supply dashboard puts LTH Cost Distribution next to STH Cost Distribution, Old Money and LTH Supply.

Common questions

Why is the shape normally so wide?

Because the group assembles itself over years and across cycles. Its coins were bought at wildly different prices, so a wide outline is ordinary rather than alarming.

What follows when the veterans start showing losses?

That the fall has worked its way through to the most stubborn owners. It is uncommon, and the occasions it happened were the very bottom of a collapse.

How does it pair with the recent cohort’s distribution?

Put side by side they reveal whether the damage stops at the newcomers or has worked through to the seasoned base.

Does a wide shape mean disagreement?

Not here. It means a long history. Width in the recent cohort suggests disagreement; width in this one is simply the passage of time.

Are lost coins in this cohort?

Yes. The cohort is defined by coin age, so supply nobody can reach sits in the distribution alongside supply held deliberately.