NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit and Loss) measures the network’s net paper profit or loss under the last-moved-price model. It is calculated as (Market Cap − Realised Cap) ÷ Market Cap.

Positive NUPL means aggregate unrealised profit; negative NUPL means aggregate unrealised loss. A large paper gain can create an incentive to spend, but it is not supply that must reach the market.

What it actually measures

Each current UTXO is compared with the market price when that output was created. Where today’s price is higher, the output carries an unrealised gain under the model; where it is lower, an unrealised loss. Those amounts are netted and scaled by Market Cap.

The scaling is what makes it readable. A raw dollar figure would grow simply because Bitcoin grew. Expressing the paper position as a share of the market means a reading from an early cycle can sit on the same chart as one from today and mean the same thing.

Why pressure and release are different readings

NUPL measures pressure. The realised metrics measure release. Neither is complete without the other, and the most informative moments are when they disagree.

A large paper gain with very little being realised describes a market that is holding, and that is a genuinely different regime from one steadily banking the same gain. The first has supply overhead that has not moved. The second is working through it. Price can look identical in both cases while the underlying condition is nothing alike.

What it does not tell you

A large unrealised profit does not have to be realised, and much of it never is. Coins are lost, held for decades, or passed on. The reading tells you the size of the temptation, not a forecast that it will be taken.

It is also silent on who holds the gain. A market where a handful of very old wallets carry the entire paper profit behaves nothing like one where it is spread evenly across recent buyers, and NUPL prints the same number for both.

How to read it

Strongly positive. Aggregate unrealised profit is high relative to Market Cap.

Positive. The network carries net unrealised profit under the model.

Near zero. Aggregate unrealised profit and loss are close to balance.

Negative. The network carries net unrealised loss under the model.

Strongly negative. Aggregate unrealised loss is high relative to Market Cap.

NUPL updates daily inside the Profit & Loss dashboard, alongside the realised profit and loss views it feeds.

Common questions

Why watch paper gains rather than what is actually realised?

Because unrealised profit shows the incentive available to holders before they spend. It is potential pressure, not supply that is certain to be sold.

Does a large unrealised profit have to be realised?

No, and much of it never is. Coins are lost, held for decades, or passed on. What the reading tells you is the size of the temptation, not a forecast that it will be taken.

How does this pair with the realised views?

This one measures the pressure and those measure the release. The most informative moments are when they disagree: a large paper gain with very little being realised is a market that is holding, and that is a different regime from one steadily banking it.

Why do some NUPL charts use emotion labels?

They are provider-defined shorthand for historical NUPL bands, not direct observations of investor psychology. Any page using those labels should publish the thresholds behind them.

What happens when it crosses zero?

The aggregate network moves from net unrealised profit to net unrealised loss under the model, or back. It is an important regime boundary, but not a guaranteed turning point for price.