MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) compares Bitcoin’s Market Capitalisation with its Realised Capitalisation. It asks how far current valuation sits above or below the network’s aggregate last-moved-price cost-basis proxy.

That qualification matters. Realised Cap does not know what each holder paid: it values each current UTXO at the market price when that output was created.

How MVRV is calculated

Formula. Market Capitalisation ÷ Realised Capitalisation.

A reading of one means Market Cap and Realised Cap are equal. Above one, the network carries aggregate unrealised profit under the model; below one, aggregate unrealised loss.

Why fixed thresholds age badly

MVRV is a ratio, so growth in Bitcoin’s dollar size does not mechanically make a reading harder to reach. Its observed range has nevertheless changed as volatility, holder composition and market structure have evolved.

That is why historical zones should be treated as context rather than permanent laws. Percentiles, trends and cohort versions can be more informative than copying one threshold from an earlier cycle.

What MVRV does not tell you

MVRV is market-wide. It cannot show whether unrealised profit sits with long-term holders or recent buyers, and it does not say whether either group is about to spend.

Self-transfers, lost coins and provider-specific entity adjustments affect the realised-value estimate. The level is a condition, not a forecast or a precise fair-value calculation.

How to read it

Historically high. Market value stands far above Realised Cap and aggregate unrealised profit is elevated.

Above one. Market Cap exceeds the last-moved-price cost-basis proxy.

Near one. Market and Realised Cap are close.

Below one. The network is in aggregate unrealised loss under the model.

Historically low. A rare downside valuation regime, not an automatic entry signal.

MVRV updates daily inside the Profit & Loss dashboard, beside its Z-Score and long-term and short-term holder variants.

Common questions

What does an MVRV reading of one mean?

Market Capitalisation equals Realised Capitalisation. It is approximate network breakeven under the last-moved-price model, not proof that the average person paid the current price.

Why does the range change across cycles?

Bitcoin’s volatility, ownership and market structure change. The observed MVRV range has narrowed at times, but the ratio has no rule forcing each peak lower than the last.

Is a high reading a top signal?

No. It identifies elevated aggregate unrealised profit, a condition that can persist while price continues to rise.

How does the Z-Score differ?

The standard MVRV Z-Score takes Market Cap minus Realised Cap and divides the gap by the standard deviation of Market Cap. It is not simply MVRV expressed around its own mean.

What should I pair with MVRV?

Cohort MVRV shows where the profit or loss sits, while SOPR shows what spent outputs are realising now.