ON-CHAIN METRIC

Omega Score

Several measures blended into one percentile, built to be informative only at its edges.

Open the Omega Score dashboard

The Omega Score folds several separate measures into one figure and reports its standing inside its own history instead of its raw value. A high number means the combination has rarely been higher than it is today.

It is deliberately quiet in the middle. The score is built to say something at its extremes and to say very little the rest of the time, which is a design choice rather than a shortcoming.

What it actually measures

Blending is the whole mechanism. Any single measure has stretches where it misleads, and those stretches tend not to line up, so the composite only reaches an extreme when the parts agree.

Duration matters as much as level. A single day in the top band is noise; months spent there is a regime, and the two ask for completely different responses.

The lines between bands are round figures drawn on a continuous measure. Stepping across one is a tiny change that happens to pass a marker, so a crossing should send a reader to look and nothing more.

The middle band is a finding, not an absence

A long stretch in the centre reads like the view has failed to say anything. It has said something quite specific: the measures underneath it disagree, or none of them is at an unusual level.

Knowing that is worth having, because it is a reason to stop looking here and spend the attention elsewhere. A gauge that manufactured a signal every week would be worse, not better.

What it does not tell you

A standing carries no destination. A figure near the top establishes that the combination has rarely been higher and says nothing at all about the room left above it, and readings at both ends have lasted months at a time.

Blending hides the disagreement underneath. A moderate reading can sit on top of one measure at an extreme and another at the opposite one, and nothing in the composite hints that this is what it is describing.

The record is short. The extremes that matter most have occurred only a handful of times, so the historical weight behind them is far thinner than a smooth line suggests.

How to read it

Extreme Euphoria / Heavily Overbought. The top band of its own record, which has framed the peaks of past cycles.

Warming / Heating Up. Running hot above its centre, with exhaustion a live possibility.

Neutral Zone / Neutral. Around fair, with no strong reading in either direction.

Accumulation / Cooling. Beneath its centre: cheap on the long horizon, cooling on the short one.

Deep Accumulation / Heavily Oversold. An uncommon trough, and the band from which the record’s best subsequent returns have come.

Read Omega Score on the Omega dashboard, together with Probability Model.

Common questions

What does the scale mean?

It is a position within the score’s own record rather than a price target. A high value says the composite has rarely been higher, and says nothing about how much further it might go.

Why blend several measures?

Because each has conditions where it misleads, and those conditions rarely coincide. Blending means an extreme only appears when the parts agree, which is rarer and has mattered more.

Does a band crossing matter?

Far less than it appears to. Those edges are round figures placed on a continuous measure, so passing one is a small move that happens to clear a marker.

Why count how long a band has held?

Because duration separates noise from a regime. One day in the top band means little; three months in it is a different market, and only a count tells them apart.

What is the middle band telling me?

That there is nothing here worth acting on today, which is worth knowing. The measure is designed to speak at its extremes, and the centre is where trading it has the weakest justification.

ON-CHAIN METRIC

Omega Score

Several measures blended into one percentile, built to be informative only at its edges.

Open the Omega Score dashboard

The Omega Score folds several separate measures into one figure and reports its standing inside its own history instead of its raw value. A high number means the combination has rarely been higher than it is today.

It is deliberately quiet in the middle. The score is built to say something at its extremes and to say very little the rest of the time, which is a design choice rather than a shortcoming.

What it actually measures

Blending is the whole mechanism. Any single measure has stretches where it misleads, and those stretches tend not to line up, so the composite only reaches an extreme when the parts agree.

Duration matters as much as level. A single day in the top band is noise; months spent there is a regime, and the two ask for completely different responses.

The lines between bands are round figures drawn on a continuous measure. Stepping across one is a tiny change that happens to pass a marker, so a crossing should send a reader to look and nothing more.

The middle band is a finding, not an absence

A long stretch in the centre reads like the view has failed to say anything. It has said something quite specific: the measures underneath it disagree, or none of them is at an unusual level.

Knowing that is worth having, because it is a reason to stop looking here and spend the attention elsewhere. A gauge that manufactured a signal every week would be worse, not better.

What it does not tell you

A standing carries no destination. A figure near the top establishes that the combination has rarely been higher and says nothing at all about the room left above it, and readings at both ends have lasted months at a time.

Blending hides the disagreement underneath. A moderate reading can sit on top of one measure at an extreme and another at the opposite one, and nothing in the composite hints that this is what it is describing.

The record is short. The extremes that matter most have occurred only a handful of times, so the historical weight behind them is far thinner than a smooth line suggests.

How to read it

Extreme Euphoria / Heavily Overbought. The top band of its own record, which has framed the peaks of past cycles.

Warming / Heating Up. Running hot above its centre, with exhaustion a live possibility.

Neutral Zone / Neutral. Around fair, with no strong reading in either direction.

Accumulation / Cooling. Beneath its centre: cheap on the long horizon, cooling on the short one.

Deep Accumulation / Heavily Oversold. An uncommon trough, and the band from which the record’s best subsequent returns have come.

Read Omega Score on the Omega dashboard, together with Probability Model.

Common questions

What does the scale mean?

It is a position within the score’s own record rather than a price target. A high value says the composite has rarely been higher, and says nothing about how much further it might go.

Why blend several measures?

Because each has conditions where it misleads, and those conditions rarely coincide. Blending means an extreme only appears when the parts agree, which is rarer and has mattered more.

Does a band crossing matter?

Far less than it appears to. Those edges are round figures placed on a continuous measure, so passing one is a small move that happens to clear a marker.

Why count how long a band has held?

Because duration separates noise from a regime. One day in the top band means little; three months in it is a different market, and only a count tells them apart.

What is the middle band telling me?

That there is nothing here worth acting on today, which is worth knowing. The measure is designed to speak at its extremes, and the centre is where trading it has the weakest justification.