The MVRV Z-Score shows how large the gap between Bitcoin’s market value and realised value is after scaling that gap by the historical volatility of market value. It is designed to make unusually wide valuation gaps stand out.

The name causes confusion. This is not a conventional z-score of the MVRV ratio, and it does not measure MVRV’s distance from its own mean. The construction is more specific than that.

How the MVRV Z-Score is calculated

Formula. (Market Capitalisation − Realised Capitalisation) ÷ the standard deviation of Market Capitalisation.

Market capitalisation values the circulating supply at today’s price. Realised capitalisation values each unspent output at the price when it last moved. That last-moved price is a useful on-chain cost-basis proxy, but it is not proof of a purchase.

Why the scaling helps

The numerator is the dollar gap between market value and realised value. Dividing it by market-cap volatility puts that gap on a scale that is easier to compare across Bitcoin’s history than the raw dollar difference.

The calculation normally uses an expanding historical window, so the benchmark itself changes as new data arrives. Cross-cycle comparison is useful, but it is not timeless or immune to a change in market structure.

What it does not tell you

The score is market-wide. It does not identify which holder cohort carries the gain or loss, whether coins will be spent, or when price will turn. Cohort MVRV and spending metrics answer different questions.

It is also a historical model. An extreme says today’s valuation gap is unusual relative to the data used in the calculation; it does not turn that observation into a forecast.

How to read it

Historically high positive. Market value sits far above realised value after adjustment for market-cap volatility.

Positive. The market carries aggregate unrealised profit relative to the last-moved-price proxy.

Near zero. Market and realised capitalisation are close.

Negative. Market value is below realised value, an aggregate net-loss condition.

Historically low. A rare downside valuation gap; rare does not mean precisely timed.

MVRV Z-Score updates daily inside the Profit & Loss dashboard, beside raw MVRV and cohort views.

Common questions

Is this the z-score of MVRV?

No. The standard construction divides market cap minus realised cap by the standard deviation of market cap. It does not standardise the MVRV ratio around MVRV’s own mean.

Why use realised capitalisation?

It revalues each unspent output at the price when it last moved, giving a cost-basis proxy that is less sensitive to dormant supply than market capitalisation.

Can readings be compared across cycles?

More readily than raw dollar gaps, but with care. The historical window expands and Bitcoin’s market structure changes, so no threshold should be treated as permanent.

Does a high score mark the top?

No. Historically high scores have appeared in late-stage advances, but extremes can persist. The metric describes valuation conditions, not an exit date.

What should I pair it with?

Raw MVRV for the underlying ratio, cohort MVRV for who carries the profit or loss, and SOPR for what spending is realising now.