Short-Term Holder Supply estimates the Bitcoin held by on-chain entities classified as short-term holders. In the common Glassnode framework, this means an entity’s volume-weighted average acquisition age sits on the younger side of a model centred on 155 days.

Short-term does not mean speculative, inexperienced or certain to sell. It means the balance belongs to a statistically more active age cohort under a particular on-chain classification.

How STH Supply is calculated

Entity-adjusted data clusters addresses into estimated participants, combines the ages of their balances on a volume-weighted basis and applies a smoothed classification around the 155-day midpoint.

This differs from simply counting every UTXO younger than 155 days. Provider implementations can use a hard age boundary, a smoothed entity model or no entity adjustment, so the chart must name its method.

Why short-term supply changes

STH Supply rises when newly created outputs enter younger-classified balances or when acquisitions pull an entity’s weighted age towards the short-term side. It can also rise when older outputs are spent and recreated at age zero.

The total declines as balances age into the long-term cohort or leave short-term entities through spending. None of those transitions proves a new buyer, a sale or a directional market view.

Where the useful signal sits

A sustained increase shows more supply concentrated in the statistically more responsive cohort. That can accompany new demand, active turnover or distribution from older supply, and those stories are not interchangeable.

A falling balance can reflect maturation into LTH Supply, lower recent activity or both. Pair the chart with price, realised cap, transfer volume and cohort cost basis before assigning a market narrative.

How to read it

Rising persistently. Younger-classified supply is growing relative to cohort outflows and maturation.

Sudden increase. A large amount of supply has been recently created or reclassified; inspect the transactions and entity method.

Flat. New short-term supply and ageing or spending are broadly balanced.

Falling. Short-term balances are ageing, being spent or moving out of the cohort.

Historically low. Relatively little supply sits in the modelled active cohort; this is a condition, not a timing signal.

STH Supply updates inside the Supply Distribution dashboard, alongside LTH Supply, cohort cost bases and spending behaviour.

Common questions

What counts as short-term supply?

In the common entity-adjusted model, balances are classified through a smoothed function centred on a 155-day average acquisition age.

Does STH Supply identify recent buyers?

No. Young outputs and younger-classified entities are proxies. Self-transfers, change outputs and custodial activity can appear too.

Why can the balance rise without a price rally?

Cohort supply follows output creation, ageing and entity classification. None requires price to move in the same direction.

Is falling STH Supply automatically bullish?

No. It can be consistent with maturation and holding, but it can also follow spending, low activity or classification changes.

How does it pair with STH SOPR?

STH Supply shows the estimated cohort balance. STH SOPR shows the realised outcome only for younger outputs that were spent.