ON-CHAIN METRIC
Reserve Risk
How high is Bitcoin's price relative to the HODL Bank model of accumulated unspent opportunity cost?
Open the Dormancy dashboard
Bitcoin Reserve Risk compares current price with HODL Bank, a model of cumulative unspent opportunity cost derived from Coin Days Destroyed. It is intended to frame price against long-term holding behaviour.
“Conviction” is shorthand for the model, not a directly observed emotion. The chain records whether outputs moved, not why their owners waited.
How Reserve Risk is calculated
Core formula. Bitcoin Price ÷ HODL Bank.
HODL Bank is built from a cumulative difference between price and a median-filtered Value of Coin Days Destroyed measure. The full construction depends on supply-adjusted CDD, so implementation details and provider methodology matter.
What low and high readings show
A low reading combines a lower price with a large accumulated HODL Bank. Historically, those conditions have appeared in late bear and early recovery phases.
A high reading combines a higher price with a smaller denominator relative to it, often as older coin days are destroyed during advancing markets. Neither side sets a precise turning date.
What Reserve Risk does not tell you
It does not identify long-term holders, measure their stated conviction or prove that dormant coins are available for sale. One formula compresses several assumptions into one oscillator.
Historical bands are empirical and can change as Bitcoin matures. Treat “attractive” or “overheated” as model labels, not objective valuations.
How to read it
Historically high. Price is high relative to the HODL Bank model.
Elevated. The price incentive is strong relative to accumulated unspent opportunity cost.
Mid-range. Neither side of the model is historically extreme.
Low. Price is low relative to HODL Bank.
Historically low. A rare model condition that has previously appeared near long-horizon value regimes.
Reserve Risk updates inside the Dormancy dashboard, alongside Liveliness, Dormancy and CDD.
Common questions
What is HODL Bank?
A cumulative model of unspent opportunity cost derived from price and a median-filtered Value of Coin Days Destroyed series.
Does Reserve Risk measure conviction directly?
No. It infers holding behaviour from coin-day accumulation and destruction.
Why are low readings watched?
They have historically combined lower price with a large modelled stock of unspent opportunity cost. The relationship is empirical, not guaranteed.
Is the high end an exit signal?
No. High readings can persist during advances, so the metric describes a regime rather than a trading date.
How quickly does it move?
The price numerator can move quickly, while the cumulative HODL Bank changes more slowly. The ratio can therefore turn faster than its behavioural foundation.
ON-CHAIN METRIC
Reserve Risk
How high is Bitcoin's price relative to the HODL Bank model of accumulated unspent opportunity cost?
Open the Dormancy dashboard
Bitcoin Reserve Risk compares current price with HODL Bank, a model of cumulative unspent opportunity cost derived from Coin Days Destroyed. It is intended to frame price against long-term holding behaviour.
“Conviction” is shorthand for the model, not a directly observed emotion. The chain records whether outputs moved, not why their owners waited.
How Reserve Risk is calculated
Core formula. Bitcoin Price ÷ HODL Bank.
HODL Bank is built from a cumulative difference between price and a median-filtered Value of Coin Days Destroyed measure. The full construction depends on supply-adjusted CDD, so implementation details and provider methodology matter.
What low and high readings show
A low reading combines a lower price with a large accumulated HODL Bank. Historically, those conditions have appeared in late bear and early recovery phases.
A high reading combines a higher price with a smaller denominator relative to it, often as older coin days are destroyed during advancing markets. Neither side sets a precise turning date.
What Reserve Risk does not tell you
It does not identify long-term holders, measure their stated conviction or prove that dormant coins are available for sale. One formula compresses several assumptions into one oscillator.
Historical bands are empirical and can change as Bitcoin matures. Treat “attractive” or “overheated” as model labels, not objective valuations.
How to read it
Historically high. Price is high relative to the HODL Bank model.
Elevated. The price incentive is strong relative to accumulated unspent opportunity cost.
Mid-range. Neither side of the model is historically extreme.
Low. Price is low relative to HODL Bank.
Historically low. A rare model condition that has previously appeared near long-horizon value regimes.
Reserve Risk updates inside the Dormancy dashboard, alongside Liveliness, Dormancy and CDD.
Common questions
What is HODL Bank?
A cumulative model of unspent opportunity cost derived from price and a median-filtered Value of Coin Days Destroyed series.
Does Reserve Risk measure conviction directly?
No. It infers holding behaviour from coin-day accumulation and destruction.
Why are low readings watched?
They have historically combined lower price with a large modelled stock of unspent opportunity cost. The relationship is empirical, not guaranteed.
Is the high end an exit signal?
No. High readings can persist during advances, so the metric describes a regime rather than a trading date.
How quickly does it move?
The price numerator can move quickly, while the cumulative HODL Bank changes more slowly. The ratio can therefore turn faster than its behavioural foundation.