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About Prediction Markets
The Prediction Markets Dashboard brings the wisdom of real-money betting markets into OCM, filtered down to the finance and macro questions that matter for crypto. It pulls live markets from **Polymarket** - the largest decentralised prediction market - and keeps only the crypto, macro and Fed, and commodities questions, discarding the politics and entertainment noise. Because every probability is backed by traders putting real capital at risk, these markets are often a faster and more honest read on what the crowd actually expects than any survey or pundit. Markets are presented as a clean, paginated board of cards, each showing the **implied probability** of its leading outcome, the 24-hour move in that probability, total volume and liquidity, and the resolution date. A category selector (All, Crypto, Macro & Fed, Commodities) with live counts narrows the board, and a set of sort modes - Top Volume, Biggest Movers, Implied Forecasts, and Ending Soon - reorders it to surface whatever you are hunting for. Two compact conviction gauges sit above the board, **Macro Conviction** and **Crypto Conviction**, each a volume-weighted measure of how decisively their markets are priced, so you can see at a glance whether the crowd is confident or genuinely uncertain. The standout feature is the **implied distribution engine**. When a single question is split across a ladder of price thresholds - for example a series of *Bitcoin above a given level by year-end* markets - the dashboard stitches those individual probabilities back into one implied probability distribution for the underlying number. From that curve it reads off the market-implied expected value, the median, and the most-likely outcome, along with the odds of reaching key levels, turning a scatter of binary bets into a single coherent forecast you can actually act on. Selecting any market opens a tabbed detail view. **Overview** lays out the headline numbers and, where one exists, the implied-distribution read. **Distribution** draws the full implied curve. **History** charts how the probability of any chosen outcome has moved over time on a 1D, 1W, 1M, or all-time window. **Outcomes** lists every leg with its live price, and **Order Book** shows the resting bids and asks for the selected outcome together with the current mid-price and spread, so you can judge how much real depth stands behind a quoted probability. All data is pulled live and keyless straight from Polymarket's public endpoints.
Reading Implied Probability
How to Read the Board
How It Works
Frequently asked questions
Why only finance and macro markets?
Polymarket hosts thousands of markets on politics, sport, and entertainment, almost none of which help with crypto or macro analysis. This dashboard deliberately keeps only the crypto, macro and Fed, and commodities questions so the board stays signal-dense and relevant to the rest of OCM. Everything outside those categories is filtered out automatically.
Are prediction-market odds actually reliable?
They are a genuinely useful signal because every probability is backed by traders risking real money, which disciplines wishful thinking far better than polls or punditry. They are not infallible - thin markets can be noisy and the crowd can be wrong - but a deep, heavily-traded market is one of the cleaner real-time reads on what informed participants collectively expect. The volume and liquidity figures on each card help you judge how much weight to give a given price.
What is the implied distribution and why is it useful?
Individual prediction markets are binary, a single yes or no on one threshold. When several such markets cover a ladder of thresholds on the same underlying number - say Bitcoin's year-end price - each price is really a point on a cumulative probability curve. The dashboard stitches those points together into one continuous distribution, which lets you read a single market-implied expected value, median, and most-likely outcome instead of eyeballing a dozen separate bets. It turns scattered binary odds into a coherent forecast.
Where does the data come from, and do I need an account?
All market data, price history, and order books are read live from Polymarket's public API endpoints through a lightweight server-side proxy. No Polymarket account, login, or API key is needed - the dashboard is read-only and simply surfaces what the public markets are already showing.
What does the Order Book tab show?
For the outcome you have selected, it shows the live resting buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders on Polymarket's order book, along with the derived mid-price and the bid-ask spread. This tells you how much real depth stands behind a quoted probability: a tight spread with size on both sides is a market you can lean on, while a wide spread or a thin book is a sign to treat the headline probability with more caution.