Today we’re diving into 10 great questions submitted by you about on-chain metrics, market cycles, MSTR, forex and the upcoming new platform!

There’s a lot of great questions again, so let’s dive straight in!

1. How Confident Are You in the 4-Year Cycle?

Question: I saw on X that you were leaning away from 4-year cycles. Can you elaborate, considering how Ben Cowen explains that the S&P 500 typically dips every 4 years?

My Thoughts: Ultimately, I believe we have to lean away from rigid 4-year cycles. One challenge is that everyone measures them differently. Some count from the previous bear market bottom, others from the cycle top, and others from the halving. The “number of days” since a certain price doesn’t hold up as a robust theory in my mind, so I don’t base decisions on it.

Early Bitcoin cycles were materially affected by the halvings, but today global liquidity and macro factors exert a far more dominant impact on price action. Markets move in peaks and troughs as central banks adjust policy, and both the S&P 500 and now Bitcoin reflect those broader cycles. Sticking to a fixed 4-year number rather than letting the underlying data guide your decisions will likely get you burnt or holding the bag. It’s far more reliable to focus on observable trends than arbitrary calendar points.

2. Global M2 Growth and Bitcoin Price

Question: Does YoY M2 growth with a 90–120 day lag really influence Bitcoin? Could BTC reflect this trend early next year?

My Thoughts: I’m a strong believer that overall liquidity expansion or contraction correlates very closely with Bitcoin price over macro timeframes. You can match up M2 growth to BTC price with a lag of roughly 90–120 days, but obsessing over the exact number of days is less useful than understanding the trend. Currently, M2 YoY is expanding at 7.3%, and Bitcoin’s price is reflecting that trend. Focus on the macro trajectory rather than precise timing. If the trend continues, Bitcoin is likely to mirror it, though the exact timing will always have some variance.

3. How Likely Is BTC to Wick Down to $101k Again?

Question: Could Bitcoin revisit $101k?

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